The concert documentary Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) has unfortunately received a couple of not-so-lovely box office predictions. Directed by Eilish and James Cameron, the Paramount Pictures production will be hitting US theaters nationwide this weekend on May 8. As Eilish’s third concert film after 2021’s Happier Than Ever: A Love Letter to Los Angeles and 2023’s Billie Eilish: Live at the O2, it takes a behind-the-scenes look of Eilish’s seventh concert tour and features performances from the tour’s stop in Manchester. However, despite favorable reviews and a strong fanbase for the artist, the movie could have a tough time at the box office.

How much is Billie Eilish Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour expected to make in its domestic opener?

James Cameron’s concert film, Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour, is expected to earn $6 million to $9 million in its domestic opening weekend from May 8 to May 10.

This projection comes from The Hollywood Reporter, which notes that Cameron had designed special 3D cameras to better capture the live experience of the artist’s performances. A separate box office prediction from analytics site BoxOfficeTheory is more optimistic, believing that the roughly two-hour movie will earn $10.1 million in its domestic opener.

The main hurdle for this Billie Eilish movie to overcome is its considerable budget of $20 million, as reported by Variety, in part due to the aforementioned 3D cameras used during its production. That would mean that the film will need to make $50 million worldwide for it to break even, if we follow the general rule that movies need to earn 2.5 times its budget to be profitable.

While the $20 million figure is admittedly low for a James Cameron project, it’s relatively high for a concert film, a genre that tends to be frontloaded at the box office. The Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour film from 2023 only cost $15 million and made an incredible $93 million in its domestic opener and $267 million at the worldwide box office. To be sure, that would be a lofty goal for this Billie Eilish documentary to reach. A better comparison for the film would be to Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé, also released in 2023, that earned $21 million in its domestic opener and $43 million worldwide.

Given that this Billie Eilish concert film is meant specifically for her fanbase, it won’t be impacted too much by the competition. Still, it should be noted that this weekend has a lot of high-profile blockbusters that could crowd out the movie. This includes Mortal Kombat 2 and The Sheep Detectives, which both release on the same day as the concert film, in addition to The Devil Wears Prada 2 and the musical biopic Michael that are both predicted to rake in around $40 million. Meanwhile, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary are still holding strong.

That said, Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour has several advantages that could help its box office numbers. As of May 7, the movie has received a high 86% critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes, so it could receive some positive word-of-mouth there. Its “Live in 3D” moniker isn’t just for show either, with the concert film being available in IMAX and other premium screens when it releases. Through a partnership with Cameron’s Lightstorm Vision and Meta Platforms, it will be made available for Meta Quest headsets.

Despite the higher price tag for the film’s 3D experience, it will still be a cheaper option for Billie Eilish fans who have yet to attend her recent tour. And even if the film doesn’t perform as well as expected at the box office, it could still bring in huge numbers on streaming platforms to cover its high production cost.

Billie Eilish is reportedly set to have a role in an upcoming film adaptation of Sylvia Plath’s The Bell Jar.